Rand in Iowa

In order to keep his sparks alive, Rand Paul will need to have a solid showing in tonight’s Iowa Caucus.

In 2012 Ron Paul landed in third in Iowa with 21%. Cruz has attempted to entice Ron Paul’s 2012 campaign supporters, however Rand had a significant campaign event with his father Ron at Iowa State University last night. Through the duration of Rand’s campaign, he has distanced himself from his father, but has recently made a desperate attempt to corral what he calls “liberty vote.” Rand has had difficulty in his campaign largely because the “liberty vote” previously ignited by his father, have seemed to split between Rand, Cruz, and Trump.

Traditionally, the Iowa caucuses have been held early in January, while college students were home for break, however, this election season the caucuses will be held while students are back at school. While Bernie and Hillary have worked at attracting the youth vote, Republicans have mostly ignored it, focusing more on elderly evangelicals.

Rand has only been the only Republican to visit barber shops to talk about criminal justice reform and the racial outcome of the War on Drugs. This could provide supplemental untapped votes to the Paul campaign.

Specifically, in order to have a solid showing, Rand Paul could lose to Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Carson, but should beat Christie, Jeb, Fiorina, Huckabee, Kasich, and Santorum. This would give Paul momentum going into the February 6 debate and the February 9th New Hampshire Primary.

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